$2.75M Committed: 2 Funds, 5 LexShares Investments
Tracking my litigation finance portfolio — Statera Capital funds and LexShares direct investments
Portfolio Summary (January 2026)
| Category | Total Committed | Capital Deployed | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statera Funds | $2,500,000 | $1,440,000 | Fund I harvesting; Fund II investing |
| LexShares Cases | $255,000 | $255,000 | 1 settled, 4 active |
| Total | $2,755,000 | $1,695,000 |
Statera Capital Funds
| Fund | Commitment | Called | NAV | IRR | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fund I | $1,000,000 | $870,000 | $490,077 | 9.17% | 🟢 Harvesting (Year 6) |
| Fund II | $1,500,000 | $570,000 | $621,681 | 12.91% | 🟡 Investing (Year 2) |
| Fund III | $2,000,000* | — | — | — | ⏳ Launching Early 2027 |
*Planned commitment (revised down from $3M due to earlier launch date + back-loaded distribution timing learned from Fund I)
Fund Performance Highlights
- Fund I: 82% success rate on 28 realized; $616,831 distributed; 19 cases remaining (⚠️ 80% value in 3 cases). Distributions ~50% behind schedule.
- Fund II: 100% success rate on 3 realized; $41.3M of $47.9M committed; adding cases through 2026. Q4 2025 call skipped due to realizations.
- Combined NAV: $1,111,758
LexShares Direct Investments
| Case | Investment | Type | Status | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passport Patent | $25,000 | Patent | ✅ SETTLED | ~$46,000 (1.84x) |
| Bovine Pharma | $75,000 | Contract | 🟡 Hearing Jan 2026 | TBD (65-75% odds) |
| Surveillance Patent | $100,000 | Patent | 🟡 Stay lifting | TBD (60-70% odds) |
| ICSID Arbitration | $50,000 | Arbitration | 🔴 High risk | TBD (20-30% odds) |
| Tribal Contract | $5,000 | Contract | 🔴 Restarted | $1,791 received; more TBD |
Upcoming Catalysts
| Date | Case | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | ICSID Arbitration | Respondent Counter-Memorial | Reveals defense strategy |
| Jan 12-19, 2026 | Bovine Pharma | 10-day evidentiary hearing | Award expected Q2 2026 |
| Q1 2026 | Surveillance Patent | Stay lift ruling expected | Case proceeds to resolution |
| Q1 2026 | Passport Patent | DOJ payment processing | ~$46K distribution |
| Sept 21, 2026 | ICSID Arbitration | 10-day ICSID Hearing | Jurisdiction + Merits decided |
Expected Cash Flows
2026 Expected Inflows
| Source | Timing | Gross | Net (after tax) | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passport Patent settlement | Q1 | $46,000 | $42,850 | High (judgment entered) |
| Bovine Pharma award | Q2-Q3 | $232,328* | $208,729 | Medium (hearing Jan 2026) |
| Statera Fund I distributions | Throughout | ~$500,000 | ~$425,000 | Medium (running behind schedule) |
*Based on $30-50M conservative award scenario
2026 Expected Outflows
| Source | Timing | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Statera Fund II capital calls | Throughout | ~$435,000 |
| Taxes on distributions | Q2, Q4 | ~$50,000 |
Risk Assessment by Investment
| Investment | Risk Level | Risk & Mitigant |
|---|---|---|
| Passport Patent | 🟢 Low | Payment timing; judgment entered |
| Bovine Pharma | 🟢 Low-Med | Damages quantum; binding arbitration, documented breaches |
| Surveillance Patent | 🟡 Medium | Court delays; patent valid, gov’t not opposing |
| Statera Fund I | 🟡 Medium | Concentration in remaining 3 cases; 82% success rate |
| Statera Fund II | 🟡 Medium | Early stage; 100% success, adding cases through 2026 |
| ICSID Arbitration | 🔴 High | Prior dismissal + weak funder; correct party, ATE secured |
| Tribal Contract | 🔴 High | 8+ years + tribal sovereignty; partial recovery, small position |
Last updated: January 5, 2026. All analyses based on LexShares updates, Statera quarterly reports (Q3 2025), Statera email update (Jan 5, 2026), and public court filings.
